Is Bitcoin’s Price Ready for the Next Big Move? Realized Dominance and Demand Trends Shed Light
Bitcoin is once again catching the attention of the financial world as its price wipes the dust off its previous highs and sits just shy of a new record. But beyond the numbers flashing on trading screens, changes in who is actually holding Bitcoin—and for how long—may be telling a more important story. Recent data on Realized Dominance reveals a shift in the market, and what happens next could depend on what both seasoned and new investors decide to do next.
What is Realized Dominance in Bitcoin?
If you haven’t heard the term before, don’t worry. Realized Dominance is simply a way of looking at how much of Bitcoin’s total value is controlled by different groups of holders. There are two main groups to watch:
- Short-term holders (STH): These are people who have recently bought Bitcoin, often hoping for a quick profit or reacting to market hype.
- Long-term holders (LTH): This group has held their coins for months or even years, showing more patience and trust in Bitcoin as an asset.
When more Bitcoin is in the hands of long-term holders, it usually means the overall market is feeling more confident and less likely to panic if prices briefly fall. On the other hand, if short-term holders begin to dominate, the market can become more volatile and vulnerable to big moves in either direction.
Recent Data: Strong Hands Take Over
According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, short-term holders now make up around 45% of Bitcoin’s realized value—a noticeable drop. This shift suggests that recent buyers are either selling their coins (sometimes taking a loss) or starting to hang on longer, eventually becoming part of the long-term holder group. Meanwhile, the portion of Bitcoin controlled by long-term holders is growing. This signals growing confidence and hints at more mature supply on the market.
This change often happens during the late phase of a bull market, when people who have held for a while decide to sell and take profits, while speculative investors lose interest or patience. One CryptoQuant analyst explained,
“Recent entrants struggle with profitability, while long-term participants maintain control of an increasing share of network value.”
When short-term activity shrinks and long-term conviction rises, there is less risk of panic selling. The market tends to calm down, and price drops are less dramatic, creating space for steadier price growth.
What Does This Mean for the Price of Bitcoin?
As the amount of Bitcoin being held by “weak hands” (those likely to sell quickly) shrinks, the chance of a quick fall in price lessens. If the recent trend keeps up, it could set a stronger base price for Bitcoin, making it harder for bears (people betting on lower prices) to push the price back down.
Demand Softens, But There’s Still Hope
While the increase in long-term holder dominance is good news, not all signs are positive. On-chain data shows a recent drop in something called “apparent demand.” This metric measures if new buyers are coming in to buy up coins from miners and big, long-term holders. Lately, apparent demand has slumped to about -37,000 BTC. In simple terms, there aren’t as many new buyers now to soak up coins being sold by miners or people finally cashing out their long-term investments.
When fresh demand drops off, Bitcoin’s price can become vulnerable. The last time something similar happened, Bitcoin quickly dropped to near $75,000. This has some observers warning that another short-term pullback could be on the table.
Short-Term Floor Price Still Moving Up
The picture isn’t all gloomy, though. One encouraging sign is that the “floor price” for short-term holders—the price at which new buyers tend to sell or buy—keeps moving upward. According to the latest numbers, this level is nearing the important $100,000 mark. This is a psychologically meaningful line in the sand for investors. Coins are changing hands at ever-higher prices, suggesting strong underlying confidence in the market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $107,796, marking a small 1.2% increase compared to the previous day.
How Will This Play Out?
To sum up what’s happening:
- Short-term holders are selling or maturing into longer-term holders, usually a positive sign for price stability.
- Long-term holders now control more of Bitcoin’s total value and are showing greater conviction.
- Demand from new buyers has cooled in recent weeks, adding a bit of caution to the otherwise upbeat signals from holder trends.
- The floor price is rising and is inching closer to $100,000, which could bring more attention and confidence from the broader market.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s price pathway in the coming months depends on whether new demand steps up again and whether the current strong hands keep holding tight. If fresh buyers return and long-term holders continue to dominate the market, Bitcoin could see new record highs and a more stable climb. If demand stays soft, short-term dips and a period of sideways movement are possible—even as the overall base becomes stronger.
One thing is clear: Bitcoin continues to be shaped by the people who own it, and how long they decide to hold on. For investors, it’s a reminder that what matters just as much as price is the character of those holding the coins—something that Realized Dominance and demand trends help make just a little bit clearer.
For more updates and data, see the original CryptoQuant post and the latest market analysis.
also read:Bitcoin Price Surpasses $100000 as Institutions Increase Holdings Raising Centralization Concerns