How U.S. Macroeconomic Trends Could Affect Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin has always grabbed attention with its massive price swings, but the past few weeks have been especially shaky. With Bitcoin prices tumbling from $118,000 to around $112,300 in early August, questions are swirling: Is another big drop coming? More importantly, what role do U.S. economic indicators play in all of this? Let’s break it down so anyone can follow along, no finance degree needed.
Bitcoin Drops Again: Why and What Now?
The start of August has not been kind to Bitcoin, echoing its performance in past years. Investors now find themselves staring at the numbers, with Bitcoin losing about $170 billion in market value since its peak near mid-July. While some traders are worried, others—like best-selling author Robert Kiyosaki—aren’t sweating it. In fact, Kiyosaki says he hopes for a bigger crash, down to $90,000, so he can buy even more.
But why this strange optimism in the face of lower prices? It’s simple: some big investors see Bitcoin drops as a sale. For them, these moments are chances to pick up more at lower prices, betting on a comeback over the long term.
The “August Curse” and What History Says
August is shaping up to be a repeat offender for Bitcoin price drops. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has logged losses in August eight times—a pretty bad track record. The average drop? Roughly 11.4%. If history repeats itself, it’s not out of the question for Bitcoin to fall closer to $105,000—or even down to Kiyosaki’s $90,000 prediction.
Why Bitcoin Follows U.S. Economic News
Most people think of Bitcoin as being apart from government or central banks, but its price often moves based on what’s happening in the U.S. economy. Take, for example, job reports. When new job numbers are weaker than expected, it’s a warning signal for investors. Less job growth can mean people spend and invest less, which worries not just stock market investors, but Bitcoin holders, too.
U.S. Jobs and Bitcoin: What’s the Link?
Recent economic data in the U.S. has not been encouraging. The July job report, for instance, showed just 73,000 new jobs—much lower than experts hoped. Arthur Hayes, former head of BitMEX and a major crypto voice, says this is one reason he believes Bitcoin could go as low as $100,000 soon.
“No major economy is creating enough credit fast enough to boost growth. So Bitcoin could test lower levels,” Hayes wrote on social media.
When the job market looks weak, people might not have extra money to put into investments like Bitcoin. Plus, weaker job numbers can also lead to changes in how the U.S. central bank—the Federal Reserve—sets interest rates. These rates have huge effects on prices for everything from houses to stocks to crypto.
The Fed Factor: Rising Rates, Sinking Bitcoin?
The U.S. Federal Reserve tries to control inflation and help the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. High rates can make borrowing (and spending) more expensive. They often also give investors better returns on simple savings rather than risky assets like Bitcoin. When people earn more on safer investments, they may avoid or sell Bitcoin, causing its price to drop.
This is why every time there’s a hint the Fed may raise rates to fight inflation, Bitcoin traders get nervous. Many sell off their coins, “just in case.” That can lead to even sharper drops.
National Debt and Global Fears: Why Kiyosaki Isn’t Worried
Kiyosaki isn’t just looking at Bitcoin’s ups and downs. He pays close attention to bigger problems, like the rising U.S. national debt. He argues that all this borrowing could lead to problems for the dollar, U.S. government bonds, and other old-school assets.
He believes Bitcoin and other so-called “hard assets” (things like gold) will become more popular if people lose trust in regular money. That’s why he’s ready to buy more if prices fall further—he sees these dips as opportunities, not disasters.
Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Hopes
Despite talk of a possible “Bitcoin crash,” not all the news is bad. Short-term drops can scare away weak investors, but they don’t mean Bitcoin is doomed. Many seasoned investors and analysts still think the long-term path will point back up, especially if central banks keep printing more money or if the U.S. struggles with debt and economic slowdowns.
What’s Next? Things to Watch
- U.S. Job Reports: Every month, keep an eye on how many new jobs the government says were added. Worse-than-expected numbers could mean more selling.
- Federal Reserve Announcements: Changes in interest rates or signals that more hikes are coming can push Bitcoin prices lower.
- Global News: Big political events, wars, or new banking rules can all shake Bitcoin’s price.
- Sentiment Swings: Short-term fear and greed can move crypto prices up and down much faster than traditional markets.
The Bottom Line
Predicting exactly where Bitcoin will go next is never easy. But as long as U.S. economic data keeps swinging—and as long as the Federal Reserve stays in focus—Bitcoin traders should expect more wild rides. Some, like Kiyosaki, will treat lower prices as a chance to buy. Others may sell in fear. For most everyday investors, the best approach is to keep an eye on the big trends. Don’t get caught up in the panic or the hype, and remember: what goes down can also go back up.
For more on Kiyosaki’s latest comments and Bitcoin’s price swings, check the full article on CoinCentral.
also read:Bitcoin Hovering Near $120K as FOMO and Institutional Interest Fuel Market Moves